Proyeksi Implikasi Geopolitik dan Militer Perjanjian Peningkatan Kerja Sama Pertahanan Filipina-Amerika Serikat bagi ASEAN
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.54543/syntaximperatif.v7i3.1165Keywords:
ASEAN, EDCA, Keamanan Regional, PMESII, Rivalitas Kekuatan BesarAbstract
Perjanjian Peningkatan Kerja Sama Pertahanan Filipina-Amerika Serikat memperluas akses rotasional pasukan Amerika Serikat ke fasilitas pertahanan Filipina dan memperkuat interoperabilitas kedua negara. Perkembangan tersebut berpotensi memengaruhi keamanan Asia Tenggara di tengah rivalitas kekuatan besar dan sengketa Laut China Selatan. Penelitian ini bertujuan menganalisis dampak sistemik perjanjian tersebut terhadap keamanan kawasan ASEAN hingga 2035. Penelitian menggunakan pendekatan kualitatif-strategis dengan metodologi estimatif dan kerangka politik, militer, ekonomi, sosial, informasi, serta infrastruktur. Data sekunder periode 2014-2025 diperoleh dari artikel ilmiah, dokumen kebijakan, dan laporan keamanan kawasan, kemudian diklasifikasikan, diberi skor, dibobotkan, dan diproyeksikan ke dalam tiga skenario. Hasil analisis menunjukkan nilai dampak tertimbang 3,75 dari skala lima. Dimensi militer menjadi faktor paling dominan, diikuti dimensi politik dan infrastruktur. Perjanjian tersebut memperkuat daya tangkal Filipina dan kapasitas respons Amerika Serikat, tetapi juga meningkatkan risiko dilema keamanan, fragmentasi sikap ASEAN, kontestasi informasi, dan kerentanan ekonomi. Skenario yang paling mungkin adalah stabilitas relatif dengan kompetisi strategis yang meningkat. Penguatan konsultasi keamanan ASEAN, transparansi pelaksanaan perjanjian, dan langkah pembangunan kepercayaan diperlukan untuk mencegah pergeseran menuju eskalasi terbuka.
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